Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

466
FXUS64 KOHX 191148
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
648 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
  continue at least through Tuesday, with rain chances starting to
  taper down beginning on Wednesday.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

- It`ll be hot and humid each afternoon with Heat Index values
  above 100 in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau today,
  and even hotter starting on Sunday and lasting at least through
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

If you`ve been reading the morning update the past few days, you
already know what this is going to say. Expect another day with
afternoon temperatures getting into the low 90s many places west
of the Cumberland Plateau, with corresponding Heat Index values
reaching the low 100s. Once again, there is plenty of instability
and high humidity, with a swath of deeper moisture more or less
blanketing Middle Tennessee. Precipitable Water values are going
to remain above the 90th percentile climatologically. (PWAT from
the 00Z sounding was a soggy 2.14", while the 90th percentile is
about 1.90".) So we can once again expect at least scattered
convective development mainly during the afternoon and likely
lasting into the evening. Weak winds aloft will translate to slow
storm movement. So any slow-movers that produce high rainfall
rates will be capable of producing localized flooding. But at
least the severe weather risk is very low; our primary concerns
today and going forward remain the localized flooding potential
and also the increasing heat levels. In fact, we are likely to
reach Heat Index values of 105+ across a large portion of Middle
Tennessee beginning tomorrow and lasting through next week, so we
may soon be issuing Heat Advisories for days on end.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

We are still seeing quite a bit of thunderstorm activity across
the area. These thunderstorms will loose their steam over the
next few hours and we will be mainly dry for the overnight.
Chances for fog overnight look low. Not going to see a lot of
change in the weather pattern for Saturday. It`s going to be
another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area as we see weak vort maxes spin around an upper level
ridge set up just to our south. The latest HREF favors more
widespread coverage south of I-40 and towards the TN/AL boarder
but all of the area will see pop up thunderstorms. With the lack
of shear the severe threat will be low but we will continue to see
the threat for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms as
PWATs remain near 2.0" or greater. Also can`t rule out gusty
winds with any stronger up drafts especially as they collapse.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler compared to Friday with upper
80s to lower 90s. It won`t feel that much cooler tho with dew
points in the mid to upper 70s, that will push heat index values
for much of the area well into the 90s to near 100.

Thunderstorms will diminish during the evening and we will be
mainly dry Saturday night with mild lows in the low to mid 70s.
The upper level ridge will start to amplify over us on Sunday.
This will be the start of a warming trend that will continue into
next week. Highs on Sunday will push into the low to mid 90s with
afternoon heat index values 100-105. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected once again in the afternoon and evening with heavy rain
being the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to amplify over Middle TN over
the extended period. This will bring a hot week with highs pushing
into the mid to upper 90s by the middle part of the week.
Overnight lows will also remain on the warm side falling into the
low to mid 70s. The humidity will stick around and that will push
afternoon heat index values into the 100-110 range. This will be
an extended period of hot temperatures and we will see major to
extreme heat risk develop by Wednesday and continue into the end
of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms will become less likely each
day as profiles begin to warm but still can`t rule out low chances
for pop up thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

MVFR ceilings are affecting the terminals this morning, or soon
will be, as deeper moisture has settled over Middle Tennessee
today. Expect the low ceilings to stick around until midday or
early afternoon. Once again, we`re using PROB30 groups to account
for the possibility of diurnal convection, although we`ve hit KCSV
a little harder given the higher rain and storm chances along the
Cumberland Plateau today and this evening. Overnight, we expect
MVFR ceilings (and possibly some radiation fog) to re-develop
along the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  76  95  77 /  60  30  40  10
Clarksville    90  76  94  77 /  50  20  40  10
Crossville     83  69  87  70 /  70  40  70  20
Columbia       88  73  93  74 /  60  40  40  10
Cookeville     85  72  89  72 /  60  40  60  20
Jamestown      84  71  87  70 /  70  40  70  30
Lawrenceburg   88  72  92  73 /  70  30  50  10
Murfreesboro   89  74  94  74 /  60  40  50  10
Waverly        89  74  93  74 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose